Combinatorio E Probabilita -italian Edi...: Calcolo

"Enzo," she said, "what’s the probability that the three chosen customers all pick the same topping?"

Every Saturday, Enzo offered a — a mystery pizza with random toppings chosen by a strange ritual. Customers would write their names on slips of paper, and Enzo would draw three names. Those three would each choose a topping from a list of ten: funghi, carciofi, salsiccia, peperoni, olive, cipolle, acciughe, rucola, gorgonzola, zucchine .

"So," Chiara said, "a 1% chance. Rare, but possible." Calcolo combinatorio e probabilita -Italian Edi...

This is always possible once we reach this stage. So the probability that a pizza gets made is just the probability of not drawing a '1' first:

Total cards: 40. Cards with value 1: 4 (one per suit). [ P(\text{not drawing a '1'}) = \frac{36}{40} = \frac{9}{10} ] "Enzo," she said, "what’s the probability that the

Enzo clapped. "A combinatorial probability with two stages!"

[ \frac{720}{1000} = 0.72 \quad (72%) ]

The catch? The three chosen customers would pick , and the same topping could be chosen more than once. Enzo would then combine their choices into one bizarre, three-topping pizza. The First Mystery One rainy evening, a young data scientist named Chiara sat at the counter.

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